Côte d’Ivoire cocoa export outlook threatened by El Nino

The promising start to Côte d’Ivoire’s latest cocoa export campaign—with nearly 1 million metric tons already contracted for the 2026-27 harvest—could face disruption due to the anticipated arrival of the El Niño weather pattern in July, industry insiders and commodity traders warn. To tighten supply controls, the Council of Coffee and Cocoa (CCC) in Abidjan has raised its premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per ton over the futures price, according to sectoral data.

Market momentum meets climate uncertainty

The CCC’s decision reflects renewed demand strength and a tightening market ahead of the new season beginning on September 1. « We’ve already locked in between 950,000 and 1 million tons for next year’s harvest, but we’ve chosen to slow the pace and proceed with caution, » a CCC insider explains.

Trading firms anticipate export volumes of 1.1 to 1.2 million tons, citing the CCC’s higher premium as justified by current market conditions. « The market allows them to be more assertive. The Council doesn’t need to lower the premium to secure deals, » remarks a cocoa trading executive.

El Niño’s shadow over West Africa’s cocoa belt

Yet this positive momentum may stall as El Niño threatens to bring drought conditions to major cocoa-growing regions, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria—critical hubs for global supply. Such a climate shift could severely disrupt production cycles.

Industry leaders, however, point to deeper structural risks. Many aging Ivorian plantations suffer from declining soil fertility, aging trees, and pest infestations. The real bottleneck, according to one Abidjan-based exporter, is the shortage of fertilizers and crop protection products. « I don’t see El Niño as the main threat. The bigger challenge is the lack of agricultural inputs and rising fertilizer costs, » the director states.