Paraguay and Australia likely to settle for a draw in group d finale

Respectively second and third in group D, Australia and Paraguay meet in the early hours of Friday in San Francisco, with a draw potentially enough for both to reach the round of 16 at the 2026 World Cup.

Attack or run down the clock?

What outcome for group D? As the third and final matchday approaches, two things are certain: with two wins from two, the United States have already secured their spot in the round of 16 and will finish top. Turkey, their opponent in Los Angeles this evening, have been eliminated. So this fixture might not be the most thrilling of the tournament, carrying no sporting stakes for either side.

Yet even the other match in group D — Paraguay versus Australia — hardly guarantees goals or drama. The clash, taking place simultaneously in Santa Clara near San Francisco, carries a big prize: second place. However, both sides are level on three points. The Socceroos currently sit second, ahead of Paraguay on goal difference (0 against -2). If they share the spoils with a draw, they would be almost certain to advance to the round of 16, because under the new 48-team format, four points should suffice to finish among the eight best third‑placed teams. Paraguay would therefore be all but sure of a place in the knockout stage.

Will these two teams go all out for second place and push for victory, or will they settle for a draw that suits both? Anything is possible, but World Cup history has already seen third group games where both sides merely pass the ball and watch the clock. In any case, the Australians and Paraguayans will have a clearer picture after the final standings from groups E and F, which play before them. And if results go their way, staying up until 4 a.m. may not be worthwhile.