joshua walker warns of M23’s lasting entrenchment in eastern DRC

During a recent online discussion, Joshua Z. Walker, an Associate Fellow in the Africa program at Chatham House and Senior Fellow at New York University’s (NYU) Center on International Cooperation, offered a cautious yet troubling assessment regarding the stalled peace process between the Democratic Republic of Congo (RDC) and Rwanda. Addressing the potential scenarios should Washington’s engagement wane, Walker explored the implications of the ongoing stalemate.

While refraining from making definitive predictions, Walker outlined two primary hypotheses. The first suggests a return to the precarious conditions that existed before the significant American intervention in 2025, essentially reactivating the dynamics observed prior to Washington’s increased involvement. The second, and more concerning, scenario involves the simple continuation of the current impasse.

This latter possibility is what most troubles the researcher, who warns that “even if there is no withdrawal of the M23, every day that passes that the M23 continues to occupy certain parts of eastern Congo, they become more entrenched.”

Walker emphasized that the mere passage of time acts as an aggravating factor. He articulated his primary fear: “The concern, in fact, is that we reach a situation where, simply by the passage of time, we end up with a de facto reality where a portion of the RDC remains entirely outside government control.” This highlights the urgent need for tangible progress in addressing the M23 entrenchment in eastern DRC to ensure regional stability and effective governance Africa.