A specialized seminar organized by the Africa: Citizenship, Violence, and Politics research group at CERI and the Africa Programme will examine the evolving threat landscape in West Africa. Since its formation in 2017, the Al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has emerged as a dominant armed force in the Central Sahel. By operating through various katibas, the group has established a presence in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, often challenging state authorities for territorial control and influencing governance Africa struggles to maintain.

The southward shift toward the Gulf of Guinea

Since 2019, JNIM has shifted its focus toward the southern Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea, specifically targeting northern regions of Bénin, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire. While this expansion appears to be a calculated strategy, it remains marked by puzzling inconsistencies that interest those following Africa news English. For instance, Ghana has remained largely untouched, and Côte d’Ivoire has seen a sudden halt in claimed attacks since 2022. Conversely, the security situation in Bénin experienced a sharp decline throughout 2025.

A recent report from the International Crisis Group investigates these geographic anomalies. It suggests that territorial growth is not a simple reflex but a strategic dilemma for the organization. Expanding too rapidly risks overextending limited resources and causing internal friction, yet failing to move into new territories allows competing groups to seize the initiative. This tension between growth and stability is a central theme in African politics today.

Regional implications and security policy

In the current geopolitical climate, characterized by the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and their departure from ECOWAS, understanding JNIM’s internal decision-making is vital. Developing effective security frameworks in West Africa requires a deep dive into these militant logics, a task supported by independent African journalism and academic research.

Event information

  • Date: February 24, 2026, from 18:00 to 19:30
  • Location: Room K011, 1 pl. Saint-Thomas-d’Aquin, 75007, Paris
  • Organizers: CERI, Africa Programme

Featured speakers

Jean-Hervé Jézéquel (International Crisis Group)
As the Sahel Project Director for the International Crisis Group, Jézéquel specializes in the political and security challenges of the Sahel. He earned his doctorate from the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) in 2002.

Marte Beldé (Sciences Po Bordeaux)
A postdoctoral researcher involved in the GOVJIHAD project, Beldé focuses on the political economy and spatial growth of jihadist movements in West Africa. Her 2025 doctoral thesis from Ghent University explored militant expansion in Sikasso, Mali.

Beatriz de León Cobo (GEMASS – Sorbonne Université)
A doctoral candidate researching radicalization, de León Cobo is an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) and leads the Europe-Sahel Dialogue Forum at the Francisco de Vitoria University.

Moderator: Dan Sanaren (CERI–Sciences Po / CNRS)

This event is a significant contribution to the African Tribune news cycle, offering deep insights into the society Africa faces in the coming years.