The Sahel crisis: a european concern for security and migration
Ulf’s view
Mali’s military administration, supported by Moscow, is currently struggling for survival following a coordinated assault by jihadist and Tuareg forces. This offensive led to the death of the defense minister and compelled Russian mercenaries to withdraw from the northern regions. Such events amplify concerns that the escalating instability could trigger a fresh wave of migration towards Europe and accelerate a broader security collapse across the entire Sahel region.
The recent weekend attacks starkly revealed the profound vulnerability of the ruling junta, whose future now appears precarious. However, the repercussions of a destabilized Mali, further complicated by the wider effects of the Iran conflict, are unlikely to be confined within its borders. This situation threatens to exacerbate an already deteriorating security crisis throughout one of the globe’s most volatile areas.
The genuine potential for insecurity to spread across West Africa’s permeable borders, potentially impacting even stable democracies like Senegal and Ghana, is a significant concern. The profound suffering inflicted by insurgent groups operating in largely ungoverned territories will inevitably compel people to seek refuge elsewhere.
This unfolding crisis is not isolated. Fuel price surges stemming from the Iran war are set to deepen Mali’s economic woes, rendering living conditions intolerable for many. As a landlocked nation, its government will struggle to afford essential imports, prompting many to consider relocating abroad. European nations must prepare for increased migration from the Sahel, particularly as the Middle East conflict pushes the eurozone into a volatile combination of sluggish growth and high inflation.
It is crucial to recognize that the Sahel, despite its geographical distance, is deeply interconnected. Millions of Malians and Burkinabe are already employed in Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. In the coming months, more individuals are expected to move to these former French colonies to escape dire conditions at home, intensifying competition for employment. Data from the European border agency Frontex indicates that Malians are already among the top three nationalities arriving in Spain’s Canary Islands, a critical transit point for African migrants heading to Europe.
Mali has endured a state of crisis for over a decade, contending with a persistent jihadist insurgency, climate change devastating agricultural lands, and the near-total breakdown of state institutions following coups in 2020 and 2021. The instability of recent years, combined with the ineffectiveness of Russian forces deployed after Mali’s rejection of French and EU troops, paints a grim picture for the immediate future.
The withdrawal of Russian forces from significant portions of northern Mali will likely enable jihadist factions to establish training facilities in the vast, vacated territories. This development could pave the way for further expansion, a scenario particularly alarming to Algeria.
A governmental vacuum in the north would serve the interests of arms dealers, drug traffickers, and human smugglers. These illicit networks frequently traverse Mali and neighboring Niger on established routes through Libya and Mauritania, ultimately leading from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe.
The insurgency has already expanded into neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger, with jihadists now encroaching upon Gulf of Guinea states like Benin and Togo. These countries are far more integrated into global trade than the landlocked Sahelian nations. The insurgents, who operate with relative impunity, crossing borders and dominating much of the rural landscape in Mali and Burkina Faso, now feel emboldened to target urban centers.
For the time being, jihadists are unable to seize Bamako. While the ultimate survival of Mali’s military government remains uncertain, its control over the nation is currently confined primarily to the capital. Governments across West Africa and thousands of miles away in Europe should closely monitor these developments.
Notable
- Mali’s military leader Assimi Goita has reappeared after weeks out of public sight while Russia reported it had successfully thwarted a coup attempt.
