Niger three years after russian military shift: jihadist violence persists

Three years after the Nigerien authorities forged a new military alliance with Russia in the aftermath of the July 2023 coup d’état, the country continues to grapple with escalating jihadist violence. Despite the stated objective of restoring security, the transition has failed to curb the relentless advance of armed groups, which continue to inflict heavy losses on the nation’s defence and security forces.

In a series of coordinated assaults on multiple military positions, at least 265 Nigerien soldiers were killed within a span of three days. These attacks, among the deadliest in recent years, underscore the persistent challenge posed by the insurgency and the limited impact of the strategic realignment.

The collaboration with Moscow, marked by the deployment of Russian military instructors and the gradual withdrawal of Western partners, has not succeeded in reversing the deteriorating security landscape. On the contrary, numerous assessments indicate that violence has intensified since the shift in alliances in 2023.

Data compiled by ACLED reveals that approximately 225 attacks were recorded in Niger in 2023, a figure comparable to 2022, yet accompanied by a significant rise in fatalities. The death toll from violence surged by 27% during this period, reflecting the growing lethality of the insurgency.

This alarming trend has only worsened over time. In its 2026 report, ACAPS highlights that civilian casualties reached an unprecedented level in 2025, with over 700 deaths documented—a figure more than double that of 2023. The situation remains particularly dire in the regions of Tillabéri, Tahoua, and along the borders with Mali and Burkina Faso, where insurgent factions affiliated with the Islamic State and the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) maintain a strong presence.

Major attacks have punctuated this period, including the deaths of over 60 soldiers in Tabatol in October 2023, 23 military personnel in an ambush near Tillabéri in March 2024, and a relentless series of raids targeting convoys, villages, and military outposts. These incidents have cast doubt on the efficacy of Niger’s new security partnership, raising critical questions about the country’s ability to counter the jihadist threat three years after its strategic pivot.