Sahel’s sovereignist illusion: four years after the split with Paris, a heavy toll
For the capitals of the Sahel—Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey—the promise of a ‘second independence’ after ousting French forces and cutting ties with the West has soured dramatically. Four years after the first coups, populist rhetoric collides with a harsh reality: dependency has merely shifted masters, insecurity has exploded, and economies are suffocating.
In 2022, public squares in these cities echoed with anti-French slogans. The forced departures of ambassadors and soldiers from Operation Barkhane were hailed as historic victories. Led by a pledge of total renewal, the military captains and generals in power assured that regained sovereignty would magically solve the terrorist equation. By 2026, the honeymoon is definitively over. The record of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) reveals a systemic failure that state propaganda struggles increasingly to conceal.
The security mirage: Russia’s boomerang effect
The primary justification for the military regimes’ coups was France’s inability to eradicate jihadism. Yet the chosen remedy proves worse than the disease. By replacing Western forces with Russian paramilitaries from Africa Corps (formerly Wagner), Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey opted for a scorched-earth strategy.
On the ground, terrorist groups such as JNIM and EIGS have never been stronger. They now encircle strategic cities and cut vital supply routes. More gravely, the human cost is terrifying. Reports from independent organizations point to a surge in atrocities against civilian populations during joint operations. Far from being protected, the people of the Sahel are caught between jihadist terror and the brutality of new security auxiliaries, while the number of internally displaced persons hits historic records.
Diplomatic isolation: institutional flight forward
To mask internal failures, AES leaders have chosen a policy of permanent rupture. The dramatic withdrawal from ECOWAS deprived the three countries of their natural economic partners. More recently, their collective exit from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and restrictions on UN agencies complete the transformation of the region into a diplomatic gray zone.
This institutional flight forward primarily serves to shield the regimes from any external scrutiny of human rights situations or adherence to democratic transition timelines. Promised elections to return power to civilians are systematically postponed indefinitely, turning what were meant to be temporary transitions into entrenched military dictatorships.
Economy in decline and social regression
Economically, the toll is equally heavy. The rhetoric of monetary sovereignty and self-sufficiency clashes with the hard reality of numbers. Regional isolation has led to a staggering rise in the cost of living and basic necessities. Local businesses suffocate under the weight of indirect sanctions, declining foreign investment, and chronic power cuts that paralyze Bamako and Ouagadougou.
While national budgets are bled dry to fund war efforts and pay for Russian mercenary services (often compensated through mining concessions), basic social services collapse. Thousands of schools remain closed, and health systems are exhausted. Instead of investing in human development, national resources are confiscated by military apparatuses.
A change of masters, not liberation
Four years after the Great Divorce from Paris, the assessment is bitter. The Sahel is neither safer, more prosperous, nor more independent. By ousting an imperfect but predictable Western partner, AES leaders have thrown their countries into the arms of an opportunistic Russian power, whose sole objective is geopolitical. The promised ‘second independence’ has transformed into a tragic economic and security regression, where sovereignty brandished at the top is merely a screen for the suffocation of peoples below.
