During a recent live Space event, political analyst Christian Moleka offered a candid assessment of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) military and diplomatic strategies in confronting the protracted conflict in the nation’s East. Despite a substantial allocation of 4.5 billion dollars earmarked for military programming between 2022 and 2025, Moleka asserted that the operational outcomes on the ground have fallen short of expectations. He noted that the FARDC (Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo) have consistently struggled to gain a decisive advantage over the AFC/M23 rebels since the capture of Bunagana in 2022, highlighting persistent security challenges in the region.

On the diplomatic front, the analyst acknowledged several significant breakthroughs. These include the imposition of European sanctions against Rwanda, a discernible shift in the perception of the conflict within Washington, and the unanimous adoption of a resolution by the United Nations Security Council. However, Moleka underscored a critical disparity between these diplomatic triumphs and the harsh realities faced on the battlefield. He referenced a report from the UN Group of Experts, which indicated that the M23 had expanded its occupied territory by an additional 35% since the Doha agreements, suggesting that diplomatic instruments have yielded only “partial and temporary results.”

When pressed to identify the primary cause for this mixed outcome, Christian Moleka unequivocally pointed to the military dimension. He drew an analogy, likening the interplay between diplomacy and military effort to a two-person dance: “One cannot maintain a strong diplomatic stance without a robust military component to support it.” For the analyst, the hard-won gains achieved on the international stage are at risk of being undermined and potentially reversed if they are not bolstered by a more favorable military balance of power for Kinshasa. This perspective is crucial for understanding governance Africa and the complexities of African politics.

Moleka concluded his analysis by contextualizing the conflict within a broader historical framework, describing it as a “war of attrition” spanning three decades. He emphasized that in such a prolonged struggle, “it is not intensity that matters, but the capacity to endure for a long time” – a formidable challenge that, in his view, confronts both Congolese diplomacy and its armed forces in equal measure, impacting society Africa profoundly.