Tchad economic outlook boosted by S&P rating

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has maintained Chad’s sovereign credit rating at «B-» with a stable outlook, effectively endorsing the government’s «Tchad Connexion 2030» development strategy. According to the Ministry of Finance, this decision reflects growing confidence in the country’s economic trajectory, driven by strong growth, controlled debt levels, and consistent support from international partners.

GDP growth revised upward: from 3.6% to 5.2%

Chad’s economic rebound, which began in 2023, has gained momentum in 2025, fueled by rising hydrocarbon prices and a recovery in the services sector. S&P now projects real GDP growth of 5% for the current year—a significant upgrade from its December 2024 forecast of 3.6% annually between 2024 and 2027.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has similarly revised Chad’s growth outlook to 5.2%, underscoring the economy’s resilience. Improved agricultural output and the recovery of non-oil sectors have contributed to a more diversified growth pattern, though the oil sector remains pivotal, accounting for a major share of exports and government revenue. Meanwhile, agriculture and services are bolstering domestic demand.

Debt levels remain sustainable

Chad has made notable progress in managing its public debt, which has steadily declined to an estimated 36% of GDP—a moderate level compared to peers. In 2022, the country became the first in the world to restructure its external debt under the G20’s Common Framework, reducing its share of total debt to just half while securing highly concessional terms.

This restructuring has improved Chad’s debt profile, making it more attractive to investors and freeing up resources to fund key projects under the «Tchad Connexion 2030» development plan. The government continues to pursue prudent fiscal policies, balancing debt sustainability with investments in infrastructure and social spending.

Domestic revenue mobilization gains ground

Significant strides have been made in boosting domestic revenue collection, a cornerstone of Chad’s ongoing economic reforms. The tax-to-GDP ratio, though still below optimal levels, rose from 9.8% in 2022 to 13.1% in 2023, according to OECD data. This reflects efforts to broaden the tax base and enhance revenue administration.

In 2025, non-oil revenues have continued to exceed expectations, supported by a vibrant non-hydrocarbon economy and measures implemented under the IMF program approved in July 2025, valued at $625.3 million. Digitalization of public finances and strengthened governance are further improving collection efficiency.

The Ministry of Finance emphasizes that S&P’s rating confirmation enhances Chad’s financial credibility, positioning the country to attract more private investment and reinforcing international partners’ confidence in its reform agenda.

«Tchad Connexion 2030»: unlocking economic potential

While S&P’s stable outlook validates Chad’s progress, key challenges remain, including economic diversification, tax revenue mobilization, and maintaining sustainable debt levels. Infrastructure development is another priority highlighted in the «Tchad Connexion 2030» plan, adopted in May 2025 following Chad’s political transition.

The transition, which began in April 2021 and concluded with the election of President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno in May 2024, culminated in the approval of a new Constitution and a national reconciliation dialogue. With $20.5 billion in financing secured from public and private partners at the November 2025 Abu Dhabi conference, the plan aims to lift 2.6 million Chadians out of poverty by 2030, while boosting GDP by 60% through an average annual growth rate of 8%.

The strategy is structured around four pillars:

• Accelerating strategic infrastructure: electricity, water, roads, and telecommunications.
• Strengthening social policies: education, healthcare, vocational training, youth employment, and social inclusion.
• Economic diversification: expanding export-oriented sectors in agriculture, livestock, fishing, hydrocarbons, mining, and tourism, with a focus on local value addition.
• Improving the business environment: streamlining administrative processes to attract investment.