Geopolitical rivalry in the Sahel: Morocco and Algeria’s competing strategies
At first glance, the Sahel belt—stretching from Mali to Chad—doesn’t appear to be an economic goldmine. To put it bluntly, it isn’t the Singapore of foreign direct investment. Economic indicators for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger reveal stark challenges: extreme poverty, youthful demographics, and limited arable land. In Mali, for instance, 47% of its 25.9 million people are under 15, only 25% of land is cultivable, and it ranks a dismal 188th out of 193 countries on the UNDP Human Development Index. Nearly 45% of Malians live below the poverty line. Ouagadougou and Niamey face similar struggles, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations in poverty, respectively (World Bank). Landlocked and governed by military juntas, these nations formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), backed—at least indirectly—by the Kremlin to counter French influence. Yet their anti-Western, anti-democratic stance hasn’t delivered the promised prosperity.
Morocco’s Atlantic gateway strategy
Rabat is betting big on the Dakhla Atlantique port, a project slated for completion in 2028, with operations beginning the following year. This mega-infrastructure aims to serve as a gateway for West Africa, connecting the region to Europe and the Americas—essentially a Tanger Med-style hub. The Moroccan leadership has already hosted the AES leaders, positioning itself as a strategic partner. The project includes plans for a railway (not yet finalized) that would give landlocked Sahel nations access to the Atlantic, unlocking economic potential. For Morocco, isolated due to its conflict with Algeria, this is a chance to showcase how its Western Sahara development plan could benefit the entire subregion. By fostering economic growth, Rabat hopes to address the root causes of jihadist recruitment, particularly among disillusioned youth. The Sahel’s population is growing rapidly, with projections indicating a doubling in just a decade.
Algeria’s trans-Saharan gas pipeline to Europe
Algiers, once at odds with Niamey, has mended fences with Niger’s military leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, proposing the swift construction of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline. This 4,800-kilometer route would transport Nigerian gas through Niger and into Algeria, ultimately supplying Europe. Sonatrach, Algeria’s state-owned energy giant, would oversee construction in Niger and train local workers—a stark contrast to Chinese practices, which rarely invest in local capacity building. The pipeline symbolizes Algeria’s push to reassert its influence in the Sahel while offering a counter to European reliance on Russian energy.
Two rival visions for the Sahel’s future
Diplomatic discussions in Madrid and Washington (February 23–24) centered on Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara. If this decades-old conflict were resolved, Algeria and Morocco could collaborate on the Sahel’s most pressing issues: security and demographic pressures. Such cooperation would neutralize the AES’s tactic of playing the two regional powers against each other. The rise of jihadism in the Sahel thrives on a toxic mix of poverty and authoritarianism. Both Algiers and Rabat seek to break this cycle—Algeria with its hydrocarbon leverage and Sonatrach’s expertise, Morocco with its infrastructure-driven growth model. Yet, their competing agendas, rooted in the unresolved Western Sahara dispute, keep them at odds. A missed opportunity, given the stakes.
In September 2025, Mali’s Prime Minister, Abdoulaye Maïga, accused Algeria of supporting international terrorism. Algeria’s response? Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf dismissed the claim as “empty saber-rattling”.
