The escalating conflict between the Islamic State in the Sahel and the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) in the tri-border region of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger has exposed a harsh truth: military juntas’ promises of security are crumbling under relentless jihadist violence. As the two armed groups clash with unprecedented intensity, civilians continue to bear the brunt of a war they neither started nor control.
From political slogans to brutal reality: the failure of junta-led security
For years, the military regimes in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey have staked their legitimacy on reclaiming territorial control and restoring peace. Yet, the grueling rivalry between the Islamic State’s Sahel affiliates and the JNIM affiliated with Al-Qaida has shattered these claims. The two groups are no longer just targeting national forces; they are fighting for dominance over territory, trade routes, and local resources, subjecting isolated communities to an unbearable cycle of fear and displacement.
For residents in the most exposed areas, daily survival has become a precarious balancing act. Markets are emptying, farmers can no longer tend their fields, and children are barred from schools. The constant threat of violence forces families to make impossible choices: flee or face the consequences.
Accountability in the crossfire: where do military regimes stand?
The juntas argue that their sovereignty and strategic independence are non-negotiable, pointing to reduced foreign influence as a cornerstone of their approach. However, sovereignty is not merely a matter of rhetoric it is defined by a state’s ability to protect its people. When civilians remain trapped in zones where armed groups operate freely, the gap between promise and reality widens.
Local authorities face immense challenges, from the withdrawal of state services to the inability of security forces to maintain a constant presence. Yet, the persistence of such conditions demands more than acknowledgment; it requires tangible action. Villagers caught in the crossfire ask a simple but damning question: if power is reclaimed but safety remains elusive, what is the purpose of sovereignty?
Propaganda and the blurred lines of truth
In the fog of this conflict, both the Islamic State in the Sahel and the JNIM manipulate information to inflate their successes and downplay losses. Independent verification of casualty figures remains scarce, leaving communities to grapple with uncertainty. Beyond the propaganda, however, one truth is undeniable: civilians are paying the ultimate price.
The humanitarian cost: displacement and economic paralysis
The jihadist power struggle has triggered mass displacements, with families fleeing villages under siege. Agricultural activities once the backbone of local economies have ground to a halt, exacerbating food insecurity. As trade routes become battlegrounds, the once-thriving exchange networks between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are collapsing.
For those who remain, life is a series of calculated risks. Venturing out for essential supplies, visiting a health clinic, or sending children to school all carry the possibility of violence. The humanitarian crisis unfolding in these regions is not merely a consequence of conflict; it is a direct result of the failure to protect the most vulnerable.
What lies ahead: beyond military solutions?
The military juntas of the Sahel have forged alliances and redefined partnerships, positioning themselves as the sole guarantors of their nations’ futures. Yet, the crisis demands more than declarations of independence or the denunciation of foreign interference. It requires a comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes of instability weak governance, economic marginalization, and porous borders.
Civilian protection, intelligence-sharing, cross-border cooperation, and the restoration of essential services must form the cornerstone of any viable solution. The juntas must not only reclaim territory but also demonstrate a tangible commitment to the safety and well-being of their people. Otherwise, their legitimacy will continue to erode, and the cycle of violence will persist.
Measuring success: beyond the battlefield
For the regimes in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey, the true test of their rule will not be found in geopolitical declarations or military parades. It will be measured by the security of their citizens. Can farmers return to their fields without fear? Can children attend school without the threat of kidnapping? Can families travel between villages without risking their lives?
Until these questions can be answered affirmatively, the juntas’ promises of security will ring hollow. The people of the Sahel deserve more than rhetoric they deserve results.
The moment of reckoning: can juntas deliver on security?
The escalating jihadist rivalry has forced the Sahel’s military regimes into an uncomfortable spotlight. Their ability to protect civilians is now the ultimate measure of their success. As the Islamic State and the JNIM carve up the tri-border region, the onus is on Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey to prove that sovereignty is not just about control it is about care.
This is not a battle they can afford to lose. The future of the Sahel hinges on whether its leaders can translate their authority into real security or whether the cycle of violence will continue to define a region already battered by decades of strife.
By Fati Seyni — Journalist