A groundbreaking analysis reveals Morocco’s heightened vulnerability to global energy disruptions
A newly published collective work examines the far-reaching consequences of escalating tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel, with a particular focus on the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The study, titled “Hormuz and the Invisible Fractures: The Price of a Distant War”, brings together contributions from leading international experts including Abdelhak Bassou, Ferid Belhaj, Ian Lesser, Hafez Ghanem, Hinh T. Dinh, and Rida Lyammouri.
The research highlights how the Hormuz crisis extends beyond regional conflict, exposing weaknesses in a globalized economy heavily reliant on energy, trade, and logistics passing through this critical maritime chokepoint. This route handles a substantial share of global oil, gas, fertilizer, and international commerce flows.
One chapter, authored by economist Hinh T. Dinh, assesses the impact of a 20% surge in oil prices on the economies of Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. Using an input-output economic model, the analysis identifies Morocco as the most exposed North African nation to oil price shocks linked to Hormuz tensions. Key sectors such as agriculture, construction, transportation, and energy-dependent industries face significant risks.
By contrast, Egypt may partially benefit from higher oil prices through increased state petroleum revenues, while Tunisia’s economic balance remains relatively stable despite sectoral disparities.
The shifting global order
Beyond economic implications, several contributors argue that the 2026 conflict marks a turning point in the evolution of the international order. Ferid Belhaj points to the growing fragmentation of the global system and the erosion of traditional cooperation and deterrence mechanisms. Marcus Vinicius de Freitas suggests a more multipolar world where conflicts are managed rather than resolved.
Ian Lesser explores the war’s impact on transatlantic relations, noting intensified divergences between the United States and European nations over military intervention and international crisis management.
The book also warns of threats to African energy security, the fragile balances in the Sahel, and the economic stability of South American nations. It underscores the rising significance of strategic minerals in reshaping global geopolitical dynamics.
The Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) emphasizes that this collective work contributes to discussions on the shifting international order and the strategies states must adopt to navigate crises that could disrupt supply chains, energy markets, and global geopolitical stability.
The study’s most striking finding for Moroccan readers is clear: the Kingdom stands as North Africa’s most vulnerable country to an oil price shock stemming from a crisis at Hormuz—a concrete insight with direct relevance to national interests.
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