An economist’s incisive analysis of Cameroon’s political landscape ahead of the 2027 polls
As Cameroon approaches the crucial dual elections of 2027, economist Serge Alain Godong offers a candid assessment of the nation’s political dynamics. Drawing upon the «theory of games» and the «prisoner’s dilemma,» he explains why, in his view, Maurice Kamto faced an insurmountable challenge in 2018 and will likely encounter similar difficulties in the upcoming contest. In a detailed examination, Godong portrays the current administration as «openly twilight» and describes an electorate that gravitates towards the certainty of the familiar rather than the allure of an uncertain promise.
«The overtly twilight nature of the forty-year-old regime in power more than ever compels us to consider the dynamics of consolidation or change at play within the Cameroonian public sphere,» writes Serge Alain Godong, an economist with credentials from Sciences-Po Paris, EHESS, and Paris X, in his recent analysis. For Godong, the year 2018 serves as a pivotal starting point. He recalls the «astonishment that gradually settled» after Maurice Kamto publicly claimed to have «scored a penalty.» Since then, President Paul Biya has been sworn in for another term, the MRC opposition party has been effectively neutralized, and most Cameroonians, according to Godong, «have acknowledged the tranquil continuation of the stay on the soft seat of Etoudi.»
Godong builds his argument on the «theory of games,» positing two fundamental principles: «humans are fundamentally calculating» and «they require information» to secure their gains. From this perspective, an election transforms into «a specific moment where a particular individual proposes a form of contract on the future to a national community.» However, he contends that Kamto cannot offer a more credible contract than the one currently in place. «The approximately 8.5 million Cameroonian voters called to cast their ballots next year could only grant their votes to Maurice Kamto if they are perfectly convinced that he will, in the coming years, better guarantee their interests than Paul Biya.»
The economist identifies around 16 million current «winners» within the system: civil servants, formal private sector employees, liberal professionals, and their families. «We can therefore estimate that some 1500 billion FCFA are annually distributed among […] the approximately 16 million Cameroonians who are part of these winners.» These individuals benefit from public sector salaries, government contracts, and major infrastructure projects. «It is these Cameroonians and their relatives who will certainly vote for the RDPC and its candidate, with full knowledge of the facts,» Godong asserts.
This leads to the «prisoner’s dilemma»: without coordinated information and tangible proof of a superior gain model, voters tend to favor the status quo. «Cameroonians are therefore perfectly aware that the current situation is rather deficient; but many among them seem to clearly prefer it to a presumably superior equilibrium position, about which they can say nothing with certainty.»
Godong’s analysis then delves into what he terms the «Bamiléké problem.» Citing Meredith Terretta, he highlights the distinction between «gung» and «lepue»—territory and freedom—from which he suggests an «economic and social Darwinism» attributed to those from the Grassfields region. Consequently, «Maurice Kamto is not viewed through the ordinary eyes of a person proposing an alternative political offer […] but rather as a kind of malevolent avatar come to realize a diabolical plan.»
The author describes a «syndrome» distinct from the Stockholm syndrome, characterizing it as a system of «eating together»: «everyone is connected to everyone else by a small scam; everyone takes from their neighbor.» This model defines «the winners as simply those who ‘eat’ and the losers as those who are hungry.» Godong’s conclusion is stark: whoever emerges victorious «will have no other choice but to act quickly and forcefully.» Quickly to redistribute wealth, and forcefully to make the economy the sole «battle horse.» He stresses that achieving 6% growth, reducing the deficit, and combating corruption are «all serious and urgent» priorities.
Ultimately, the analyst believes that the political game «will become less and less lazy, less and less rent-seeking.» He also suggests that the nation requires «a strong and committed Paul Biya» to navigate the aftermath of the elections.
