Three years after the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum in Niamey, the military leadership remains locked in a tense standoff with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), an organization that swiftly condemned the coup and imposed sanctions while threatening military intervention.

The regional bloc’s ultimatum, delivered just days after the putsch, was perceived as a declaration of war by neighboring military-led governments in Burkina Faso and Mali. This collective response highlighted the interconnected nature of the crisis—isolating Niger from ECOWAS without considering the broader Sahelian context became an impossible task.

The deepening rift culminated in the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a strategic alliance uniting the three nations in their rejection of ECOWAS’ authority. While formal withdrawal from the bloc was finalized in early 2025, intermittent dialogue persists between the two sides.

Lansana Kouyaté steps in as mediator

Amidst the diplomatic impasse, Lansana Kouyaté, former Prime Minister of Guinea, has emerged as the primary negotiator tasked with restoring engagement between the AES and ECOWAS.

International relations expert Pape Ibrahima Kane notes that ECOWAS has prioritized security cooperation in its recent directives to the new commission president, Birame Diop of Senegal. “At the July 2026 summit in Freetown, leaders instructed the commission to focus initial discussions on regional security challenges,” Kane explains. “This marks the beginning of a promising process, as both parties appear aligned in their willingness to engage constructively.”

Kane emphasizes a critical vulnerability: Niger’s heavy reliance on Nigeria and Benin—both ECOWAS members—for electricity and access to the Port of Cotonou. He believes Kouyaté’s mediation will address these structural dependencies while reconciling the AES’ stance with ECOWAS’ objectives.

New leadership, renewed hope

The appointment of Bassirou Diomaye Faye as ECOWAS chair and Romuald Wadagni’s rise to power in Benin have injected fresh momentum into diplomatic efforts. Faye visited the AES countries shortly after his election, while Wadagni prioritized Niger in his inaugural international tour, signaling a departure from past tensions.

“Unlike previous leaders criticized for their approach, these new figures bring a fresh perspective,” Kane observes. “The incoming ECOWAS team in Abuja is expected to implement a more balanced agenda, reducing the confrontational tone of prior policies.”

Civilian return vs. military rule

Sahanine Mahamadou, Special Advisor to Mohamed Bazoum on civil society affairs, argues that ECOWAS has consistently pursued dialogue with Niamey. “The military leadership has repeatedly rejected engagement. If these officers are truly patriotic, they must create pathways for civilian governance—modern states cannot be governed indefinitely by the barracks.”

Mahamadou’s remarks subtly advocate for Bazoum’s reinstatement, noting that the deposed president has yet to submit a resignation letter. In March, the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning Bazoum’s detention and calling for his immediate release, a move Niamey dismissed as interference.

The fate of Mohamed Bazoum

Jérôme Pigné, founder of the Sahel Strategic Security Network, highlights the dilemma facing the European Union: balancing principle with pragmatism in its dealings with Niger. “Bazoum’s unlawful detention remains a sticking point, but the EU must clarify its priorities. Is realpolitik the path forward, or will Brussels uphold its values? For now, no clear solution has emerged.”

Pigné underscores Niger’s historical significance as an EU partner, noting that Brussels is reassessing its cooperation model with the Sahel. “Dialogue is not only necessary—it is ongoing,” he states. A March report by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) suggests Europe could offer substantial support to stabilize the region, including intelligence sharing, military aid, and security training.

The SWP further recommends that the EU focus on economic development in Niger and neighboring Sahelian states while continuing political engagement with regional actors. “Europe should not expect military juntas to alter their behavior,” the report concludes. “Stability hinges on inclusive governance and sustainable partnerships.”