Behind the sandbags and cordons in Bissau, the military junta’s sweeping disarmament campaign is not just about getting guns off the streets. It is the opening move in a high-stakes political chess game that will determine who controls Guinea-Bissau’s return to civilian rule — and who gets to run in the presidential election set for December 6.
The mechanics of a citywide weapons hunt
For weeks now, security forces have been fanning out across multiple neighbourhoods in the capital, prying open shipping containers and searching homes in a bid to locate hidden weapons and ammunition. The stated goal: disarm groups deemed capable of destabilising Bissau.
Military authorities say they are reclaiming control of firearms circulating outside official channels. This is a country where the armed forces have played a central role in political crises for decades, and where coups have repeatedly derailed democratic processes.
According to information available so far, some of the weapons being sought are attributed to individuals linked to former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló. That is a politically explosive allegation — one that will require solid evidence establishing exactly where the weapons came from and who was holding them.
Embaló’s bid to return and run
These security operations are unfolding against the backdrop of a major political deadline: the presidential election scheduled for December 6, 2026. After the coup that ousted him in November 2025, Umaro Sissoco Embaló has been living in exile in Morocco.
Yet the former president has publicly declared his intention to come home and seek the highest office once again. In late September, he stated he would be a candidate in the presidential race.
His return was initially planned for October 4. But the military hierarchy decided to bar his entry. The junta maintains that the security conditions needed for his return are not in place, citing the protection of public order and social stability.
Embaló, for his part, insists he wants to take part in the vote and is calling for his candidacy to be reviewed by judicial authorities in an impartial and independent manner.
A candidacy that unsettles the military transition
The standoff between the former president and the new authorities is no longer confined to the question of his physical return. It may soon play out directly on the electoral battlefield.
The junta has committed to holding elections aimed at restoring civilian rule. The presidential and legislative votes are officially set for December 6.
But the Embaló case puts the military in a delicate bind. How do you organise an election meant to mark the end of the transition while preventing the president toppled by the coup from coming back to campaign?
For now, the authorities have officially justified his return ban on security grounds. It would therefore be premature to speak of a candidacy legally rejected by the junta. On the other hand, his physical return to the country is indeed blocked by the military authorities — a move that concretely undermines his ability to run a ground campaign.
Weapons as a political lever, not just a security issue
It is in this context that the seizure operations take on an added dimension. By hunting for weapons that may be tied to networks close to the former regime, the junta says it wants to prevent any threat to public safety.
But these operations are happening at the very moment when political rivalry around the presidential election is intensifying. The question, then, is whether the disarmament drive is purely a security measure — or whether it will also reshape the political balance of power before the vote.
Military authorities will need to demonstrate that the searches and seizures rest on transparent procedures and are not being used to sideline certain political opponents.
A transition under close scrutiny
The junta already pushed through a new Constitution in August following a referendum that was fiercely contested by parts of the opposition and civil society. The new text notably strengthens presidential powers.
In this climate, the December 6 presidential election is a crucial moment for the country’s institutional future. Any eventual return by Embaló, his candidacy, and the conditions under which other contenders can campaign will all be watched closely.
In Bissau, the military keeps searching, seizing and disarming. But behind the inspected containers and the weapons being tracked down, a broader battle is taking shape: the fight over who controls the transition and the terms under which Guinea-Bissau will — or will not — return to civilian rule.
With two months to go before the vote, the tug-of-war between the junta and Umaro Sissoco Embaló is only just beginning.